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      lex: "This record cannot tell whether basal water pressure rises before grounded-ice acceleration. The claim is therefore neither supported nor contradicted.\nWhat is clear:\n- In the one instrumented event (2\342\200\2236 January 2022), rain and melt came first: rain began at 01:50 UTC on 2 January, and the basal pressure rise followed about 19 h later in every processing.\nWhat is not clear:\n- The order of pressure and acceleration depends on the processing.\n  - Centred smoothing of the published 15 min GNSS puts the speed rise about 8 h before the pressure rise.\n  - The same smoothing of the reprocessed 1 s GNSS puts pressure about 6 h before speed.\n  - Every past-only (causal) estimate is indeterminate, with spreads of more than \302\26110 h.\nWhy sharper data did not resolve it:\n- The grounded and floating trunk stations share a ~12 h variability in speed that is larger than the event\'s speed-up. It is mostly not GNSS multipath and not a simple tidal response.\n- The borehole tilt sensor was still settling.\nThe proposed held-out comparison of three nested models needs several events. In a single-event hold-out, adding basal pressure and uplift did not improve on weather and speed history."
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