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Hazard: REACHOUT SaferRAIN pluvial flood maps (2 m, 15-minute design storms, return periods of 2 to 200 years) for the current green cover, REACHOUT's planned scenario with and without extra ponds, and all open space green; present rainfall from station data and future rainfall scaled by EURO-CORDEX changes (2041-2070, median and 90th percentile), checked against the Destination Earth Climate DT (IFS-NEMO SSP3-7.0 projections to 2049 and storylines of 2017-2024 at +2 °C). Risk: the Vogelbacher et al. (2026) framework (social vulnerability x exposure x hazard) through building-climate-risk v0.2.1, residents from the 2021 census, vulnerability from census-section indicators; classes with present-day limits. Room to green: Spanish Cadastre building footprints and Copernicus Urban Atlas 2018 land-use classes, within 50 to 200 m of each building. All four chains use the same analysis (releases v0.1.0, 10.5281/zenodo.23298913, and v0.2.0, 10.5281/zenodo.23302113, with identical risk tables). This synthesis extends the earlier synthesis of the first three chains (https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RALq-EHWcx22c8cqC7G1E94H95CT9Upq7f3ZqbvslVuog). https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/logrono-flood-adaptation-four-findings-synthesis https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasLimitationsDescription The four findings come from one analysis and one flood model; they are consistent with each other by construction and are not independent confirmations. SaferRAIN is a fill-and-spill model without sewers on 15-minute design storms; it represents nature-based solutions only as infiltration and terrain changes, which likely understates storage and drainage effects. The future rainfall is a scaling of observed design storms; REACHOUT's factors cannot be reproduced exactly from its EURO-CORDEX file and the Climate DT check is single-model and hourly. Social vulnerability comes from census-section rates and was not validated against impact data; residents are fixed at 2021; 1,851 residents near the edge of the modelled area are left out. The all-green scenario is a bound, not a plan, and REACHOUT's planned scenario may differ from what the city builds. Room to green is a land-use proxy (REACHOUT's greening layer is not published) and finding 4 is descriptive: it does not show that other measures would work, which this model cannot test. Results are scenarios for one city and may not transfer to cities with other terrain, drainage or social geography. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/logrono-flood-adaptation-four-findings-synthesis https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasRecommendationDescription 1. Adaptation planning in Logroño should assume that the pluvial flood risk of today's 100-year design storm will be reached by the 50-year storm under the median EURO-CORDEX scenario and by the 25-year storm under the 90th percentile (2041-2070), and should test measures under both scenarios; the Destination Earth Climate DT supports the median scenario's order of magnitude. 2. Measures should be planned first where socially vulnerable residents are at risk, not according to available open space: converting all open space to green surfaces mainly takes less vulnerable residents out of risk. 3. Protecting the most vulnerable residents at risk will likely need measures other than greening, such as storage, drainage or building-level protection, in the census sections where they live: little land near their homes could be greened (about a quarter of what the least vulnerable have). 4. The small effect of REACHOUT's planned nature-based solutions (less than 4 % fewer residents at risk, none for the 100- and 200-year storms) should be re-assessed with a hydrodynamic model that represents storage, overflow and the sewer network, and with the measures' actual layout, before it is used to accept or reject them; in SaferRAIN they enter only as infiltration and terrain changes. 5. The layout of planned measures and the scenario inputs should be published openly, so that their effect can be reproduced and compared across models. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/logrono-flood-adaptation-four-findings-synthesis https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasSynthesisDescription Four FORRT chains from one shared analysis of building-level pluvial flood risk in Logroño (Spain), under REACHOUT's flood scenarios, give one picture. (1) Heavier future design rainfall puts more residents in buildings at pluvial flood risk in every case examined (all return periods from 2 to 200 years, both EURO-CORDEX future scenarios, each risk index): +1.5 to +5.9 % under the median scenario and +5.0 to +9.5 % under the 90th percentile; today's 100-year storm becomes a 50- or 25-year storm. The Destination Earth Climate DT supports the median scenario's order of magnitude and places the 90th percentile at the high end. (2) REACHOUT's planned nature-based solutions offset only a small part of this: they reduce the number of residents at risk by less than 4 %, only for frequent storms, and not at all during the 100- and 200-year storms. (3) Converting all open space to green surfaces takes about 9 to 21 % of the residents at risk out of risk, but mainly the less socially vulnerable ones: in all 40 comparisons the residents taken out of risk are less vulnerable than those who remain, and the most vulnerable fifth benefits least. (4) The most vulnerable residents at risk also have the least room to green: on average 4 to 6 % of the land within 100 m of their homes could be greened, against 17 to 20 % for the least vulnerable, in all 42 comparisons; within each group, room to green does not consistently predict who greening takes out of risk, so this is a description, not the explanation of finding 3. Together: climate change raises flood risk for Logroño's residents, the measures planned so far do little against it in this model, greening placed without regard to vulnerability mainly protects those who need it least, and near the homes of the most vulnerable there is little room for greening at all. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/provenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/pubinfo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name Anne Fouilloux https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs http://purl.org/dc/terms/created 2026-10-11T19:14:01.965Z https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs http://purl.org/dc/terms/license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/logrono-flood-adaptation-four-findings-synthesis https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt https://platform.sciencelive4all.org https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label Logroño flood adaptation: future rainfall raises building-level flood risk; planned nature-based solutions offset little; greening favours the less vulnerable, who also have the least room to green https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate https://w3id.org/np/RApmrqOEr4f5bJC2vayrTnzhwnuEfAU_I4Pdg8K5JxeBw https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm RSA https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey 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 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature 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 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAT-AEOeE-pt2wTVXyagR5fa-0yPSZHW7TRVKgm7fEMTs/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920