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Lead time of basal water pressure before glacier acceleration, Langhovde Glacier, January 2022 (exploratory, one event)
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAhiuIPJkGVJbzqG-It4rfLACd6yoRlHrUzkUBk1WWBZA/langhovde-basal-lead-time-2022
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There is no original methodology to reproduce: the question, and the three-model held-out test, were proposed by [name to be added with the researcher's agreement], who had not run it.
Deviations from that proposed test:
- one event only, so no held-out prediction across events (descriptive onset timing, lead–lag and a one-event hold-out instead);
- speed and uplift come from GNSS positions smoothed with the processing of the earlier reproduction, extended with past-only (causal) and robust variants;
- post hoc amendments, each dated and recorded:
- the same smoother for all series;
- a robust causal fit, after single-epoch GNSS outliers dominated the causal speed;
- one base position and the base receiver's broadcast ephemeris in the kinematic processing;
- bed-tilt onset labels withdrawn because the sensor was still settling.
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAhiuIPJkGVJbzqG-It4rfLACd6yoRlHrUzkUBk1WWBZA/langhovde-basal-lead-time-2022
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Exploratory analysis of one event, pre-registered step by step before each computation, with dated amendments.
Data:
- the Sugiyama et al. (2026) deposit (Mendeley Data, doi:10.17632/8wvtxg53ry.1): 15 min GNSS positions, 1 min borehole pressure (BH2201), 10 min weather;
- raw field data at the NIPR Arctic Data archive System (CC BY 4.0): 1 s GNSS from five receivers (A20220506-004), on-glacier air pressure (A20220506-001), and a 100 Hz accelerometer in borehole BH2201 (A20220506-002).
The deposit is parsed with the code of the earlier reproduction (doi:10.5281/zenodo.23257925).
Processing:
- The raw GNSS is processed kinematically with RTKLIB 2.5.1 against a reference receiver on rock: forward filter only, so that no future data are used; GPS L1+L2; integer ambiguities fixed; checked against the published 15 min positions.
- Basal pressure is corrected with the measured air pressure.
- Every series is smoothed three ways: centred, causal (past data only) and robust causal Gaussian local-linear regression, at several bandwidths. Speed comes from the smoothed positions; acceleration from the speed.
Analysis:
- Onsets are defined by declared rules (threshold exceedance at 2, 3 and 5 standard deviations of a pre-event day, persisting for 1 h; and a hinge change-point fit).
- Leads are computed for every rule, bandwidth and reference window. A pre-registered majority rule with a 1 h tolerance labels each pair: basal leads, simultaneous, basal lags or indeterminate.
- The detection delay of each causal speed estimator is measured on synthetic onsets with the observed noise and subtracted.
- Further steps: lagged cross-correlation; lagged regressions for the three nested models, with rolling-origin and event hold-out evaluation; tests of the sub-daily speed variability (sidereal filtering for GNSS multipath, a tidal regression fitted before the event, a common-mode comparison with two further GNSS receivers); and bed-tilt series from the borehole accelerometer.
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAhiuIPJkGVJbzqG-It4rfLACd6yoRlHrUzkUBk1WWBZA/langhovde-basal-lead-time-2022
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Whether basal water pressure (and bed uplift) changes before the acceleration of grounded ice, tested on the one meltwater- and rain-driven speed-up at Langhovde Glacier, East Antarctica, that was observed with basal pressure, GNSS and weather together: 2–6 January 2022 (summer 2021/22).
- In scope: the order and separation in time of the onsets of rain and melt, basal water pressure, bed uplift, bed tilt, and the speed and acceleration of a grounded and a floating GNSS station; the lead–lag structure between these series; and a descriptive version of the proposed comparison of three nested models (speed history; plus weather and melt; plus basal pressure and uplift).
- Out of scope: the proposed held-out prediction across events. It needs several events with basal pressure, and this record has one, so it could not be run. Also out of scope: other glaciers or seasons, and the physical mechanism linking pressure and sliding.
https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAhiuIPJkGVJbzqG-It4rfLACd6yoRlHrUzkUBk1WWBZA/langhovde-basal-lead-time-2022
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Anne Fouilloux
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Lead time of basal water pressure before glacier acceleration, Langhovde Glacier, January 2022 (exploratory, one event)
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