Nanopublication

ID

https://w3id.org/np/RAz93ofHeIsBBpCs9MJsLkbV7KEfDy2VtAFyKr3bEB7Fc
Formats

Content

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sub:assertion {
  sub:citizens a schema:CreativeWork;
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    rdfs:comment """Will heavy rain flood more homes in Logroño, and do green spaces help?

For every residential building in Logroño: how many residents are at risk when a short, heavy downpour floods the streets — today, with heavier future rain, and with more green space?

What was looked at — REACHOUT computer flood maps for 15-minute downpours, from storms expected every 2 years to once in 200 years. For each building: how deep the water gets nearby, how many people live there, and how socially vulnerable they are.

Heavier rain puts more people at risk — In every case examined: a few percent more residents at risk in the middle scenario, up to about one in ten more in the high one. Today's once-in-100-years flooding could come roughly twice as often, or more. Destination Earth data support the middle scenario's order of magnitude.

The planned green measures help only a little — As REACHOUT modelled them, they cut the number of residents at risk by a few percent at most, only for frequent storms, and not at all for the biggest ones.

More green space helps — but not those who need it most — Turning all open space green takes roughly one in ten to one in five of the residents at risk out of risk, but mostly the less vulnerable; the most vulnerable fifth benefits least. They also have the least room for green: near their homes, about a quarter of the land that could be greened near the homes of the least vulnerable.

What it means, and what it cannot say — Plan measures first where vulnerable residents are at risk. For them, greening alone will likely not be enough: storage, drainage or protecting buildings may be needed. Re-check the planned measures with a model that includes sewers. Uncertainties are large, so the direction of each finding is more reliable than its size.

Heavier rain is expected; where measures are placed, and which kind, decides who they protect.""";
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    rdfs:label "Plain-language summary of the Logroño flood-adaptation synthesis (four findings) for citizens";
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